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UK Conservative Victory - Risk Assessment Insights

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Too often, we allow events to roll by without giving them a second thought! Nothing wrong in principle with this and the UK conservative victory seems to be another victory for mainstream politics in Europe once again. It is just that in a sense, but it also tells of an underlying confrontation boiling between the UK and the EU. If the UK follows through on a "in/out" referendum and then leaves the EU, those with operations in the UK and/or exposures to the Sterling point and Euro may want to do a risk assessment on the convervative victory and what it could mean for them should these "pledges" become policy points in the new administration there.

Somethings on doing that risk assessment one may want to bear in mind are as follows

Operational Risk: What is the extra costs associated with manufacturing and distribution should the UK leave the EU?

Business Risk: What are the restructuring/change management costs in responding to a UK exit from the EU?

Political Risk: What is the likelyhood of a UK government rejoining the EU if they left it and what is the timeline for doing so? What costs will incurred should this happen?

Regulatory Risk: What is the impact of UK insistence in defining good financial market governence for institutions based there? How will it affect your business and /or investments?

Also, what will be incremental charges for import tarriffs from the UK to EU nations (should they leave the EU) noting Ireland is the UK's largest export partner?

There is a long list of risk areas to explore when doing a risk assessment on this topic or any other for that matter. The above are some high level pointers on the UK convervative victory and contentious pledges made about possibly leaving the EU. What would you add to the above? Do you think they will leave the EU?

I have posted a full blog on the topic on LinkedIn and my secondary blog at http://johnmlhll.blogspot.ie.

Please note my primary blog attached to my portfolio website is not updateable as I am having some technical issues right now but I will post the blog article as soon as those technical issues are resolved. You can access my portfolio site anytime still at http://johnmlhll.azurewebsites.net, which is fully operational on the front end for visitors.
Discussion started by John Mulhall, on 829 days ago
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